United States · full toolkit
US Treasury term structure
Yield curve (yield by maturity)
One day's yields plotted against bond term — drag the slider to change the date
A snapshot of that single day — the x-axis is the bond's term (1 month → 30 years), not time. Not a forecast.
Curve slope (10Y minus 2Y spread)
Long yield minus short yield, over time. Below 0 = inverted.
Percentage points (10Y yield − 2Y yield). Dashed line is zero (flat curve); red bands are official NBER recessions.
Real vs nominal 10Y
Nominal yield vs TIPS-implied real yield
Both in %. The vertical gap between the two lines is the market's expected inflation (breakeven).
What drives curve moves (PCA)
Share of daily curve movement explained by each factor
Level
87%
Slope
8%
Curvature
2%
Share of curve-change variance explained by each factor. The level factor dominating (~85%) is the expected Litterman–Scheinkman result.
Stocks vs yields (correlation)
24-month rolling correlation: monthly 10Y change vs S&P 500 return
Correlation runs −1 to +1 (0 = no relationship). The split is shown by regime because a single average over all history hides the structure.
Rates & spread crisis timeline (10Y, 2Y, 10Y−2Y)
The 2s10s signal over time, with all four US crisis episodes shaded
Three lines on one axis: 10Y (blue), 2Y (purple), and the 10Y−2Y spread (green). The dashed line is zero — the spread below it means the curve is inverted. Red bands are the four US crisis episodes. 2008 and 2020 are flight-to-safety (yields fall); the open-ended 2026 US–West Asia war is the counter-case where yields rose on an oil/inflation shock.
Crisis curve behaviour
Each chart overlays the yield curve (yield vs maturity) on three dates of an episode — before the stress, at its peak, and during recovery — so you can see the whole curve reshape. Watch the short end collapse and the curve steepen as the Fed cut in 2008 and 2020; the 2013 sell-off pushed long yields up instead.